Thom Hogan thoughts and 2011 predictions about Sony
Thom Hogan posted his 2011 camera and lens prediction. First he analyzed the current year for Sony: “2010 was the year Sony took off on a tangent. NEX and Pellicle mirror cameras are definitely both a bit on the side of non-traditional DSLR plays. The inexpensive full frame thing failed, as did the dozens of low-end traditional-DSLRs-with-minor-differences thing. Somewhere in the organization Sony execs sent and responded to a different memo than the one Canon didn’t see. Sony’s is a high risk, high reward (or big failure) strategy. Ironically, the best NEX camera is the video model, the NEX-VG10. But Sony has a lot to work on still for stills, even if they get the A700 replacement out and maybe a new full frame sensor flagship: lenses. They need more lenses (NEX, APS, full frame, you name it). Without those lenses, the rest of the strategy will almost certainly fail to bring Sony up to the Nikon/Canon level. The NEX was a good idea, but we’re stuck at three lenses, two of them way too big for the camera (compare a Samsung NX100 kit with the NEX5 kit).”
And those are Thom’s prediction for 2011: “Not too difficult to predict that the A700 replacement appears, though I think there are some surprises to those that haven’t been paying attention: pelliclemegapixels, GPS inside option, etc. Looking at the feature list on paper the camera looks like a Canon and Nikon killer. But it isn’t, it’s just another Sony (oh, I know I’m going to get beat up over that line). Competent, but a little unfocused in target user (and interface), and not quite at the same pixel peeping level as its competitors. Hey, what about the rumored 24mp APS sensor? Answer: how many lenses does Sony have that could resolve well on that? Four? Five? So putting a camera out with what is essentially the maximum for useful APS pixel count doesn’t seem like it would be a big winner given the other constraints (e.g. lenses). (One source does tell me that Sony has 4-5 Zeiss lenses planned for 2011 launch, including a 200mm f/2, so perhaps these will fill that void and give the 24mp users something to shoot with.) You don’t really want to put out a camera that might cause a majority of its users to start posting “it wasn’t worth it” messages all over the net. Still, the multiple “economy full frame” excursion that Sony went on seems to imply that they’ll throw just about anything at the wall to see if it sticks, so we probably will see a 24mp crop sensor camera from them, and it may be the A700 replacement. I’ll just go on record as saying that would be foolish. I don’t think it’s difficult to predict that Sony have at least two more NEX models by the end of the year and at least three more NEX lenses. What’s tougher to predict is what happens with full frame. I think we’ll see one more stab by Sony there, mainly because it was already in development before the upper management started questioning the large sensor payback. So which is it: full frame with video, or full frame with a pellicle mirror, or both? Given what I know about the sensor development, the video is a given. So my guess would be both. Meanwhile Sony, like Panasonic, will join the compact-camera-with-built-in-cellphone game (call it the Sony Erickson Cellular Alpha, or SECA for short). mirror, more ”
You can’t comment Thom Hogans thought on his website (he doesn’t have any comment system). I told Thom that he can visit our website to read youre comments about his predictions! Let Thom know what you think!
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Bibbi
2 years ago |Is Thom Hogan a photographer? Or dose he know anything about the dslr bussiness?
Mohd.
2 years ago |Thom Say: ‘and not quite at the same pixel peeping level as its competitors’
How could he know that and it’s not yet in the market.
This guy is a Nikonfan even if he say he’s not.
phlapp
2 years ago |Don’t new Nikons use Sony sensors anyway?
Myst
2 years ago |yes, and i think you can expect a d400 with the same sensor the a700 replacement will have, although nikon and pentax both implement the sensor it different ways so the results differ a bit, for example the a900 and d3x sensor.
panfruit
2 years ago |I thought it was all Nikon-designed, though with some Sony-fabbed?
Sky_walker
2 years ago |Nope, it’s not. Though it’s what Thom still believes. As same as that the Nikon will rule the earth, than solar system, and than entire galaxy.
dk
2 years ago |“Thom Say: ‘and not quite at the same pixel peeping level as its competitors’
How could he know that and it’s not yet in the market.
This guy is a Nikon fanboi even if he say he’s not.”
Fixed it for you.
mugen
2 years ago |Not worth any comments
ET
2 years ago |Yeah, right.It’s Sony’s sensor all the way — not Nikon’s
Lars
2 years ago |Thom is spot on with the current lack of lenses in the NEX line. Sony really needs to do some work there. The SLT line looks promising, enough gadgets for a consumer camera, and enough possibilities and lenses for enthusiasts. Although Sony seems to get less out of its own sensors compared to the competition, the SLT’s have enough going for them to satisfy most.
With the predicted specs of the A77 combined with the Zeiss lenses, there is definitely a growth path.
The stupid thing for Sony is to compete with Nikon and Sony to win professionals. The big market is with consumers, and by a smart market segmentation there is more to win. The competition with Nikon and Canon is at the compact market, if Sony is able to come up with inventions as the Panorama and HDR technology, they should be able to get a significant part of that market, and build up trust with the consumers who want to expand their possibilities. Look at Microsoft, they didn’t build an empire with bringing the best software, they did it by being inventive, listening to customers and good marketing.
Myst
2 years ago |he said sony has 4-5 lenses able to resolve the 24mp of the new apsc camera below i’ll list the lenses that can resolve 24mp with ease
5cz
24-70mm, 24mm, 85mm, 135mm, 16-80mm
3g lenses
70-200mm, 70-400mm, 300mm
5 normal
28-75mm, 135mm stf, 85mm f/2.8, 35mm f/1.8 and 50mm f/1.8 (the last 2 are a bit soft at f/1.8 and f/2 but even the expensive canon/nikon 85mm lenses wide open are soft and nobody considers them unable to resolve a 24mp sensor.
so all in all 13 lenses with more on the way.
nex lenses, taht is kinda a given and sony already released a lens road-map with 7 lenses in 2 years, though i would have expected 2 pancakes…a bit disappointing.
a700 replacement, big mystery there, it might be as he said just another sony…or it might be a killer cam, it’s to soon to tell i expected it to be very good, but still fall short in some regards.
and for FF sony can differentiate the a850 and a900 replacements even more, namely make the a900 replacement even better with more to offer thus more expensive and improve a bit on the a850 (new sensor, maybe a liveview system that can’t autofocus at all so they won’t have to use a worse OVF, and still no video, keep that for a950)
sony did have a hit and miss with apsc cause most of them were not really good cameras, for most people (i still consider my a200 to be a hell of a camera at ISO 100, cause of the CCD sensor which has rich colors).
sony only flopped with cheap FF because the userbase was very small, but both the a900 and a850 are excellent cameras, and everyone who used them can tell you that they render the colors better than any other FF camera ut there, maybe except the leica M9 (and yes the D3x also is a hell of a camera, but most prefer the a900 color rendition, although the d3x wins in every other aspect).
sn1
2 years ago |You forgot Sony 50/1.4
Myst
2 years ago |and the 3 macros 30mm 50mm and 100mm
i kinda left out the 50mm f/1.4 because it very soft till f/2 in the corners, although the center is more than qualified to resolve 24mp.
panfruit
2 years ago |Resolve 24mpx *APS* though? That’s a tigher fit trhat 24mpx full-frame, yes?
Myst
2 years ago |yes tighter fit, but the FF lenses usually are better in the middle portion.
Arthur
2 years ago |Also Minolta glass: 17-35G, 135STF….
Froo
2 years ago |Please. The 17-35 G is for its price a pretty sorry piece of equipment, slower and inferior to competing products even back when it was launched. It’s not better than the Tamron-made 17-35/2.8-4, which means it is a good but not awesome lens.
Myst
2 years ago |i didn’t even want to mention minolta glass
just the current lenses that you can buy new from sony, neeedless to say tamron/tokina/sigma also produce glass for sony so i think a 24mp APSC sensor is covered.
Froo
2 years ago |Well, the 16-80 and the STF can’t really resolve that level of detail, but your general point is certainly correct. I also think the 50/1.4 should be on the list, because no one really expects a lens to be tack sharp wide open, and no one else’s 50/1.4 is better than Sony’s anyway.
Truth is that most people compare lenses THEY DON’T OWN. They say “well Nikon’s pro glass is much superior!” while clutching their (inexpensive) Nikon body and their (crap) Sigma consumer zoom. It’s a psychological phenomenon. Call them out on this. You people owning Sony pro gear, show it around, and when ppl say things like that, offer to make direct comparisons with THEIR pro level glass. And most importantly, show them your website/flickr if its any good, good pics shot with Sony equipment will convert more ppl than you think.
Myst
2 years ago |they can resolve that much detail
cause it’s a APSC sensor, maybe the 16-80 will fall a bit short in the extreme corners, but the STF is up to the job, just check it out on photozone.de
Froo
2 years ago |I own the STF, together with the a700 and a900, and it’s not up to the job.
CamlessPhotography
2 years ago |HDR, Sweep panorama and transparent mirror to assist phase detection sensor for fast auto focusing are great inventions and sony should keep listening to customers. My own experience sony is far behind in customer support.
Search for forums about sony ericsson x10 update issues although providing update with outdated version. See the postings and it isn’t responded in properly manner.
As well as lenses are important that for at least there should a lens to chose for various photography types.
One thing Sony should priority focus on consumers instead of professionals.
Because focusing on professionals. There are always several reasons to stick with current brand and brand gear, like. lenses are more expensive than bodies mostly switching from on brand to another is difficult and impossible sometime. So Sony should focus on new future professionals which will belong consumers. Current professional are hard to change mind even if changing brand is easy and no budget problem. Many pros can be hired as brand ambassador instead of being user.
Sajjad Tufail
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sajjads
CamlessPhotography
2 years ago |There are always several reasons to stick with current brand and brand gear, but few reasons to change brand.
contraspirit
2 years ago |“2010 was the year Sony took off on a tangent… The inexpensive full frame thing failed, as did the dozens of low-end traditional-DSLRs-with-minor-differences thing.”
What does he call a failure? Did anyone expect that all users would dump their Canons and Nikons to jump at a Sony?
panfruit
2 years ago |The ‘low-end traditional-DSLRs-with-minor-differences’ cameras were certainly failures, and entirely unalluring. :/ If the cameras weren’t bland and boring and less-than the Nikon or canon equivalents, then people might be jumping ship.
haruvino
2 years ago |One million people have one million different opinions. Why should we listen to this guy?
panfruit
2 years ago |He usually has good info.
ET
2 years ago |He doesn not have”good info.” The guy is an idiot Nikon fanboy. His claim that Nikon (a camera/optical company) designs chips/sensors is outright laughable. Sony makes the best sensor, and Nikon is lucky that Sony does it and sells them. Otherwise Nikon would be years behind Canon, like Samsung sensors.
panfruit
2 years ago |Nikon has designed lots of their sensors — what *are* you talking about?
ET
2 years ago |They haven’t designed crap. Every single Nikon APSC sensor is designed and made by Sony except D3100. Even if D3100 sensor isn’t designed by Sony, that does not mean it was designed by Nikon. It was designed and made by some other chip maker. Same for D3/D3s sensor. Made/designed by someone other than Nikon/Sony. Nikon is an optical company — not an electronic company. No one makes sensors better than Sony, and that includes p&s sensors (like Canon G11/S95 have a Sony sensor too). In 2011 Iphone will use Sony’s 8 MP sensor. I guess Apple forgot to consult Nikon about it. See this video by Pentax at photokina who openly admit it’s a Sony’s sensor.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHGeCDs6jBs
See? I guess people forgot to tell Pentax that it was Nikon (a lens maker) who taught Sony how to make sensors. LOL
The difference between Pentax and Nikon is this: Pentax proudly admits that they have Sony sensor, but Nikon shamellessly lies about that.
Sky_walker
2 years ago |ET – Making a sensor is one thing. Making a software that produces best images from Sensor data is another. Pentax already proven that they can get better pics out of A55 than Sony can. DxO Mark says it’s quite a big difference.
contraspirit
2 years ago |Might be so, but personally I can see Sony cameras on sale at every corner. I don’t remember as much trade a few years ago in Minolta times. Some (not dozens anyway) Sony bodies are certainly lousy, but it doesn’t mean Sony has ended up in a flop. Sony is currently number three in photography. I wouldn’t describe it as a failure.
Joel
2 years ago |I think he’s taking a wait-and-see attitude with Sony. I’m definitely more bullish, but I have noticed that in my town of 100k people, there’s not a single Sony NEX/Alpha body for sale anywhere. You have to drive an hour away to find a Wolf Camera, and their stock is still a bit light. Compare that to Nikon/Canon, where every body from the D7000 on down as well as the 60D on down are currently for sale along with about 5 lenses apiece.
So that means that these innovative cameras are left to those willing to take a chance online without getting to play with it first, unless you have a SonyStyle store nearby (my closest is 4+ hours).
If Sony could get their products into more stores, they’d have more sales. There’s no reason for a new customer to buy a D3100 over an A33/A55. And the NEX would attract a LOT more attention.
Joel
2 years ago |One other uphill battle for Sony is that students of pros tend to gravitate toward what that pro uses. I have a good friend who is a pro photographer, and he teaches photo classes… most of his students ended up buying Nikon and some switched to Nikon from Canon. That never would have happened if he weren’t a Nikon guy.
Will
2 years ago |Article is a failure from the start when it suggests that Sony is on a “tangent”, rather than being a leader (with the Pellicle mirror). The idle musings (“predictions”) aren’t worth mentioning. The whining for lenses needs justification to back up the idea that people want to buy multiple lenses. Is that really true, I wonder. In this economy? I wonder if the reason some people have multiple lenses by Nikon or whatever is just because Nikon has stuck with the same mount for so many years that people’s lens collections have built up, rather than there being an actual demand for multiple lenses. (People tend to buy things every few years whether they need it or not. That’s not the same as need or demand.)
panfruit
2 years ago |NEX lenses suck: they *need* more lenses! I could not buy into that system with that pathetic line-up of lenses (and I want to buy one, too, but waiting on lenses).
Jason Hatfield
2 years ago |I think Sony’s FF cameras were a complete success. I switched to Sony from Nikon after waiting almost 2 years for a D700 replacement. I love my a900 and the huge images I can print from it.
extra|ordinary
2 years ago |I agree Jason. I love my a850. Sure it might fall short on the feature list compared to its competitors, but who cares! The camera takes great photos, period!…is that not what were after in the end?
EE
2 years ago |Quote “Answer: how many lenses does Sony have that could resolve well on that? Four? Five? So putting a camera out with what is essentially the maximum for useful APS pixel count doesn’t seem like it would be a big winner given the other constraints (e.g. lenses). ”
-This is a universal problem of all manufacturers, and not in anyway unique to Sony. Canikon lenses lack resolution as well. In fact, lens technology in general needs to take a big leap, it’s fastly becoming the weak link.
-Sony’s strategy is “high risk, high reward (or failure)” and is why” the writing is on the wall” for companies that refuse to innovate and only gave us the “status-quo” for so long (canikon).
-I wish a compact FULL FRAME was made by SOMEONE other than Leica.
panfruit
2 years ago |“Canikon lenses lack resolution as well. In fact, lens technology in general needs to take a big leap, it’s fastly becoming the weak link.”
No doubt. I wonder how Canon is going to support their 30+ mpx beast in the coming year? Definitely be interesting to see.
Sahaja
2 years ago |Nikon’s D3s and D700 cameras with 12mp on a full frame sensor are very kind to lenses.
apamau
2 years ago |I still think the sony nex strategy is cool, numbers speak by itself, it’s selling well in japan at least and picking up in every other country.
To target mass consumer with a mini DSLR, you don’t actually need a lots of lense for a start, coz they started from 3x to 5x max for most compact users.
I seen sony retailer sell this things to compact users telling them they get better quality than any company and it’s small.. that convert sales.
And when sales built up from this people, more advance nex model and more lense will comes in.
That’s where i think the biz logic kicks in from compare to people into camera but not in the business.
john
2 years ago |“The NEX was a good idea, but we’re stuck at three lenses, two of them way too big for the camera”
And with the right adapter almost any lens ever made …;-)
I’d like to know the numbers of NEX cameras sold to Canon or Nikon owners as a second body to carry anywhere.
I agree Sony have to add more E mount lenses hopefully fast primes.
EE
2 years ago |+1 for fast primes. I have no need for a zoom of any kind on any camera system (not just NEX).
Joel
2 years ago |Thom himself has an NEX-5, partially for that reason.
tfd
2 years ago |I’m always amazed at the way people take shots at Sony for DSLRs. They bought a company that was on the ropes, and released an entry-level Camera of the Year, then a great advanced SLR and an excellent affordable FF so legacy Minolta shooters had good updated cameras to use. That done, and realizing that getting advanced/pro shooters, with their financial and emotional ties to their kits, to switch brands would not be a successful stratgegy, they focused on the new crop of consumers and potential enthusiasts by experimenting with a number of (perhaps too many) entry-level feature combinations in some quite good cameras. This year, they are distinguishing their brand with some really interesting and potentially revolutionary designs to appeal to those same customers, and are about to update the A700 and the A900 (why, otherwise, all those new FF lenses in the pipeline?) for more advanced shooters. It’s great for consumers that someone is really trying to come out with new camera offerings – and it’s the only way for Sony to have a chance to make a dent in Canikon’s market. Dismissive dicta aside, I don’t see Mr. Hogan’s point. Truly new camera ideas coming out, with a lens line building up in tandem . . . Seems like Sony is doing exactly what he thinks they should do, but he thinks they should be finished already? Rome wasn’t built in a day.
ET
2 years ago |Sky_walker K-5 was supposed to score better than A55. It does not lose light to the mirror. K-5 is also supposed to do better than A580 since K-5 uses 14-bit RAW (and costs twice as much). It will be a shame for Pentax if K-5 had scored lower than A55 that!
IQ wise, when actual images are posted on IR, you will see that there is nothing much to K-5 hype. It will look similar to A55/A580/D7000.
Jesse
2 years ago |At the end of the day, for a professional photographers, how many lenses do you really need? Most lens which are offered to the consumers are just for marketing purposes, especially all the compact zooms with slow apertures, like the 18-200mm category lens for instance.
To me, a few primes (macro in my case), a short range fast zoom (28-75mm F2.8) and a mid tele (70-200 F2.8) should have enough coverage for many professional photographers.
More lens doesn’t mean better system. Let me know if you’re picky with good glass, you still bother with so many entry level lenses which aren’t good for professional works.
Arthur
2 years ago |Right on. Pros often admit to having 4 bag lenses that travel with him/her all the time. Fast prime, wide, tele, super tele. I am not a pro and use only 70-400 and 17-35 for what i shoot. 50mm prime is there for the sake of completeness(used once in 5 years).
Jesse
2 years ago |Yeah, because less lens in your bag means less distraction and can really focus more on photography. I remember a year ago I only have a 90mm macro with me and I do all my portrait works with it and I don’t even bother changing lens or whatever. Not until this year where I get a 28-75mm and a 70-200mm where I found changing lens to be very distracting.
Don’t get me wrong, different lens have their own purpose to serve and I do admit they yield better results on my recent works just that sometimes when you have the option of lens at hand, you really get distracted.
Rob
2 years ago |Thom is a Nikon troll – he makes comparisons whereever it suits his purpose, which is to put down and denigrate Sony products. For example, the size of Sony NEX lenses is mentioned, but is the vastly superior high ISO performance mentioned? Sony used to take it on the chin from pundits like Thom, but now that they lead the field, ISO isn’t even mentioned. Of course not – when the purpose of writing is to put down a competitor to your fanboy product. Get a life Thom – or move on because we’re on to you.
panfruit
2 years ago |“My camera has spectacular HIGH ISO performance… but it has no AF lenses other than three certified yawners.”
NEX needs lenses. So far it has *nothing* interesting.
John
2 years ago |+ 13 SSM/SAM alpha lens with the adapter. Is 16 AF lenses not captivating enough for you?
john
2 years ago |“Sony used to take it on the chin from pundits like Thom, but now that they lead the field, ISO isn’t even mentioned. Of course not – when the purpose of writing is to put down a competitor to your fanboy product. Get a life Thom – or move on because we’re on to you.”
Thom Hogan wrote:
Sony decided that flapping mirrors are passe and is moving to a lineup of mirrorless and pellicle mirrored cameras, despite the light loss it involves. This seems to be a little ahead of the curve to me, as EVF isn’t there yet and Sony hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with high ISO results (especially considering that the new Sony’s run hot at the sensor as it is ;~). But ahead of the curve is better than behind.
Manxtt12
2 years ago |Thom is trying to scare people from buying Sony Alpha especially the Nikon newbies interested in getting the NEX/SLT entry systems. Notice how the predictions posted just before the thanksgiving? His plan to sabotage Sony Alpha sales during this holiday season.By the way, Thom is paid by Nikon in many ways.
SonyA700
2 years ago |This is the guy that said back in July that Sony were pulling out of FF. Yet new lenses coming out are FF….he’s an idiot.
LEdgars
2 years ago |I agree with Hogan about lenses. Sony lens line lacks middle priced lenses for enthusiasts. Affordable FF 70-200mm G f4, 24-105mm G f4, 12-24mm f4. I need 150mm or 200mm macro lens and I have to buy Sigma or Tamron. I think 85mm f2.8 is move in to right direction.
Sky_walker
2 years ago |Yes, that’s true. 2010 wasn’t a good year lens-wise – Sony has released less than a half of the lenses amount Canikon did. So they don’t do much to catch up. Meanwhile the old lenses require update already… with this speed there won’t be anything good. Some great lenses cost/performance wise will pop up from time to time but wide range of good lenses will never be created.
Though it’s quite understandable, as Sony needs a customers to buy these lenses in first place, and these can be acquired from selling the cameras which use them.
So hopefully 2011 or 2012 will be a great year for ppl looking for lenses.
EE
2 years ago |I honestly don’t know who Thom is, but it’s clear he’s a Nikon acolyte.
He’s down on Sony because their innovative technology FORCES him to strongly re-evaluate his belief that Nikon “is superior than the rest”. In psychology, this is known as cognitive dissonance.
Notice he barely mentions Canon’s lack of innovation, practically given them a complete pass, but then skewers Sony for delivering major strides in innovation. In his mind, he can’t bring himself to criticize Canon because Nikion is essentially in the same spot.
In short, it would tear his world-view down. Can’t have that…
Joel
2 years ago |He’s looking at this in terms of sales and overall psychology (how many people will switch to Sony for SLT? I did, but most won’t). I think he’s undersold Sony a bit sales-wise but in general, both Canon and Nikon are going to solidly outsell Sony. Sony needs to hook up with Best Buy badly.
Andrew
2 years ago |Not that I plan on jumping ship anytime soon but I really do not like the directions Sony is going. What was the point of the Carl Zeiss prime and zoom collection if Sony ultimately drops the traditional FF DSLR (perhaps a professional interchangeable video camera)? After reading these predictions I must say I can’t help but to agree with him. As far as still photography goes, Nikon seems to get it right more often than not. I find it rather amusing that Sony sells them their sensors and seemingly cripples the equivalents in their own bodies. I happen to own two A700′s and one A850. I like both models and have achieved some wonderful shots with them. In a lot of cases better than my Canikon counterparts. I will most certainly purchase another A850/900 and CZ primes/zooms and the 500/4 if it ever comes out. But why is it so hard for a company the size of Sony to make better decisions and compete with the top two? Just my two cents…
dk
2 years ago |That Sony is dropping FF is a myth, started by none other than yours truly Thom.
Sky_walker
2 years ago |Yep. It’s just Thom’s rumor. I wouldn’t put any weight to what he writes. Especially that what Sony does do says something very much opposite to what Tom thinks Sony does do.
steve
2 years ago |The GH2 and 24mp Sony would have the same sensor density of 6.6mp/cm2. Does that mean you cannot see the resolution increase from the GH1 since most of the existing m43 lenses are consumer grade.
dk
2 years ago |You don’t expect a fanboi to understand such thing as pixel density do you?
steve
2 years ago |LOL. I just noticed the following #1 request for Nikon at the same link.
1. 20mp or more FX sensor in a D700 body. Preferably without the AA filter (or with a removable one). Note to Nikon: been waiting three years now. I know you’ll eventually catch up with my wish, but can we make that sooner rather than later?
dk
2 years ago |I sense much fear in this old padawan.
Rob
2 years ago |Does Thom mention the full frame video camera that will be announced soon? Already, he’s missed the trends – why listen to this joker?
Also, why is it all about pixel peeping? Why not mention the photgraphic revolutions introduced with NEX and A55 – shall I list them Thom?
Auto panoramas
Midnight – lowlight features (stacked images for very low noise images in the dark)
Full time autofocus, both in video and fast stills mode
ETC!!!!
Nikon doesn’t have any of that. Why not mention that Nikon isn’t even in the mirrorless or translucent game?
Thom is just a Nikon propogana tool (emphasize tool)
Rob
2 years ago |BTW – we should all go to Thom’s regular Nikon fanboi website and start leaving comments there too!
Sky_walker
2 years ago |You can’t leave comments there… but we should just go there and visit, best: every 15 minutes. So that Thom’s Google Analytics would show as high bars as his ego.
Froo
2 years ago |Seriously, Thom has lost it. In old days he was pretty good at the foreseeing thing; this is just sad, it contains no meat at all.
By the way, it’s not like Canikon have dozens of lenses outresolving 24 Mp APS-C, either. But I hope Sony won’t do that, it would be stupid. Sony have a chance to put full frame sensors in a 7 class camera and that is what they should do.
With regards to lenses, right now we have the best selection Minolta/Sony users ever have had. By quite some margin! Always wishing for more is the typical lensturbator approach — oh it FEELS SO GOOD to have a tilt-shift in my manufacturer’s lineup. Buying it? Never! But oh, it feels so good! Truth is you can do everything NOW with Sony and if you can’t, you are in the 0,001% that needs a tilt/shift or a 1.0 normal, by all means switch to something else.
Sky_walker
2 years ago |Same can be said about coming 500mm prime. How many people will buy this lens? 0,0001% of Alpha users? Going by your logic this lens shouldn’t even go out of design office.
Even T&S lenses are more popular, at least they don’t cost as much as a car.
What people ask for in regard of lenses are mostly cheaper one – like 70-200 f/4 or lenses that fill in the gaps, eg. 150mm Macro, especially important since 100mm Macro is discontinued. Why T&S lenses appear is mostly because Canikon folks always give them as an example of why Sony system is incomplete.
Froo
2 years ago |That’s correct, the 500 isn’t strictly needed, but it’s a brand-building lens. It should exist — even if only ever made in twenty examples — just to show that Sony is a serious brand. It inspires awe in the peons. However, a tilt/shift is not brand-building.
Sony HAS been doing quite a lot since being left with lots of age-old Minolta designs. They have even managed to put out some class-leading pieces of glass. They should be cut some slack in this regard.
Right now the tele zoom range is really crowded and I seriously doubt that Sony will be populating this area even more. I don’t see the need for it to be frank.
Canikon users and their smug feelings of superiority is of course the ultimate example of stupid complainers that will never buy the product, so catering to their needs seems a little futile — which by the way also was my point.
hanugro
2 years ago |I see more and more Sony dSLR on my holiday to Australia
inconspicuous
2 years ago |DxoMark just announced the scores for the Nikon D7000:
http://dxomark.com/index.php/en/Camera-Sensor/All-tested-sensors/Nikon/D7000
The Nikon D7000 scores a whopping 80! I guess all of the comparisons to full-frame sensors was indeed founded.
Sky_walker
2 years ago |Nice… very nice.
Pentax still rule the APS-C world in picture quality – congrats! Bows for Pentax for picking Sony sensor and squeezing everything out of them! Outstanding!
SonyA700
2 years ago |Pretty impressive that Pentax scored higher than the mighty D7000
SonyA850
2 years ago |Thom just skips to mention, that there are a lot “old” Minolta lenses out there, which are still good enough for a 24 Mpx FF-Sensor: 2.8/20, 2.8/24, 1.7/50, KoMi 2.8/28-75, 1.4/85 and so on.
john
2 years ago |35 2.0/100 2.0// 135 2.8/ 135 STF/ 200 2.8/ 300 F4/
300 2.8/ 400 4.5/ 600 F4 Primes
17-35 3.5/ 24-50 F4/ 28-135 4-4.5/ / 70-200 2.8/ 80-200 2.8/ 100-400 apo/ Zooms
3x-1x 1.7-2.8/ 50 2.8/ 100 2.8/ 200 F4 Macro
Come to mind..:-)
Sune
2 years ago |His predictions from last year were 100% wrong:
* Sony. Lots happening at the new Minolta.
o First up will be Sony’s GH1 killer. Only it won’t kill the GH1, especially since Panasonic will be on the next model soon, too. APS sensor, interchangeable lens video/still camera without a mirror. Check. Unfortunately, it will be larger than many of the m4/3 cameras. This has been a crash project for Sony, and I think it may explain why some of the other rumored items have been delayed. Still, I don’t expect it until near Photokina time-frame, which means it shows up after Panasonic’s next offering and after Samsung’s. That puts a lot of pressure on it to be better in some clear, significant way.
o The A700 replacement, which is long overdue. And yes, it will have video. As with Sony’s latest fashion, it will probably come as multiple models (e.g. A750, A775) instead of a single model, though. Difference between the two models will be sensor (say 14mp and 16 or 18mp). Sony’s using a shotgun to hit the target, then going back and finding which pellet hit the target and trying to figure out the gun that would do that by itself.
o I think we’ll see the low end lineup go through some modest, small changes during the year, too (after analyzing which pellets hit the target).
o This should be a strong lens year for Sony, too. We’ll finally see their 500mm, and we’ll get a couple of fill-in-the-blanks lenses, too.
SonyA700
2 years ago |Is Thom Hogan actually Ken Rockwell? They both talk the same crap.
dk
2 years ago |They’re both Nikon fascists.
Froo
2 years ago |Exactly — a couple of years ago, he actually had inside info. It seems like these channels have disappeared. This is just guessing, and spectacularly bad guesses by the way, together with publicly available info (which also turned out to be wrong).
Mike Dougherty
11 months ago |I don’t quite understand the hostility in many of the comments above. The goal is the picture and the various cameras are just tools. Certain camera/lens combinations get that done for me. The Nikon D7000 with Sigma 17-70 OS is awesome and so is the Sony A580 with a Sony 70-400. Both cameras and lenses are perfectly happy sitting next to each other. I do use a Canon S95 for my P&S. They all get along and work great in the situations for which they were intended. BTH, Thom is able to analyze and articulate the business of photo equipment better than anyone else. Actually, there is no one else.
alibarnack
10 months ago |the man has a good point. Even common sense will tell you that sony-Minolta doesn’t even know what to do now.they have the nex system..with still only 3 lenses. They still haven’t gotten the a77 out yet, no one knows if they will stop making full frame dlsrs or switch over to slt’s. and what if the slt’s dont sell well? What then? They CANT seem to make up their minds. They Dont know if they should compete with canikon with this or with that or not at all. All those Zeiss lenses they were marketing…where are they now? Are they easy to get? nope. what happened to their entry level line? The a350, 390 etc etc? No where to be seen. Just the a33 and a33 and a850, if youre lucky to even find them in stores, or a store that will actually stock it besides sonystyle.Sony is not interested in making cameras for camera users.They are interested in making gimmick to make money. This is the camera industry, not video games. Each video game may cost at the most 60 bucks…each new lens is a few hundred, maybe over a grand. The Best thing sony can do is to fire all the idiots from Minolta who are still around, sinking the ship. Minotla’s best years was the md system, the collaboration with leica, and the early part of the maxxum ssytem when they had good market share. Since then minolta has become a company not interested in making cameras, but an inclusive short sighted, wishy washy manufacturer of gimmicks set to try and make money. And now they are Sonys problem. Their slogan should be” Let’s fix things that are not broken” and “lets change things year after year for the sake of changing it, screw our customers.”